Methodology and sources
Inclusion and status
The field includes plausible contenders with coverage in reputable reporting or national primary polling. All statuses are snapshots of available public evidence.
- Announced
- Publicly launched a 2028 campaign.
- Exploring
- The person or their team publicly says they are evaluating a run.
- Publicly interested
- The person has publicly entertained running.
- Speculated
- Included based on credible reporting or polling. A public denial is recorded as context.
- Withdrawn or ruled out
- A prior candidate ended a campaign or the editor verified an exit from the field. The profile remains available in the archive.
How evidence is compared
The same questions apply to all candidates within each issue. The guide assigns evidence to questions by editorial review or topic-specific matching rules. For Democracy, Voting Rights and Global Engagement, the guide reports the documented action or position and its scope. A question can be marked unavailable even when a profile has related evidence. Evidence labels and dates come from the summaries and source links. Full issue records retain the context and assessments.
We include people in the published polling average who are established political figures and are still widely discussed as potential contenders, plus a small number of prominently reported potential contenders. There is no fixed size for either field. Being polled or discussed does not mean a person is running. Ossoff and Kennedy have publicly denied interest in running, but remain in the field because their names are actively discussed and polled. First statement · Second statement.
Polling. National primary averages are from RealClearPolling, with surveys fielded August 26–November 1, 2026. Candidate averages may use different subsets of polls. Rank numbers describe the displayed field. Ties share a position; candidates absent from the RCP average follow in alphabetical order. The average is an early snapshot, not a forecast or a probability of nomination. It is not updated automatically.
Status. “Speculated” means a potential run is discussed in polling or reporting; it does not imply the person has expressed interest. “Publicly interested” requires an attributable indication of interest. “Exploring” requires an explicit exploratory effort; “Announced” means a formal campaign announcement. Ballotpedia’s tracker and Reuters reporting inform inclusion.
Policy. Additional summaries adapted from How I Vote, November 10, 2026, CC BY 4.0. It served as a starting point for locating the linked sources. Positions describe sourced past records or statements, not necessarily 2028 platforms. “No public position verified in this guide” means we have not verified a position for this snapshot; it does not mean the person has no position. Sources are linked next to documented positions. Portrait source links are listed below. Wes Moore’s official portrait is by the Maryland State Government, resized from Wikimedia Commons, under CC BY-SA 4.0.
Issue assessments. The ideology labels compare a candidate’s documented approach on that issue with the full Democratic and Republican field. The editor explains the comparison next to the label. “No clear axis” means this topic or record does not fit a single left-to-right scale. “Insufficient evidence” means the guide cannot make a fair placement.
Public standing. An issue-specific poll appears with its year and audience when available. Strong and weak mean a clear edge or deficit in the cited poll. Mixed means a close result or divided findings. Polls covering different audiences, years, and questions are snapshots. Most candidate–issue pairs have no comparable polling.
Nomination odds. Each figure is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for a “Yes” contract on a person winning and accepting their party’s 2028 presidential nomination. A midpoint of 25¢ on a $1 contract is shown as 25%. These are market-implied probabilities. The cards and profiles show when the quotes were collected and link to each exchange for current prices. Polymarket data · Kalshi data.
Funding and favorability. Campaign receipts and independent expenditures appear with their source and scope. “$0 found” means the reviewed records identified no matching amount. “Unverified” means the available material could not establish a figure. “Unavailable” means this edition has no suitable published measure. Net favorability subtracts the unfavorable share from the favorable share in the national total for the named poll. Samples and field dates vary across candidates.
Portrait sources
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